Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, September 18, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 45% (NBC News). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Tuesday), putting him at 12 points net negative.
- Biden's approval rating on issues: Foreign policy 42%, the economy 40%, border security and immigration 36% and the cost of living 30%. (NBC News poll)
Among voters nationwide/statewide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +3 (45-42-6)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Biden with a narrow lead nationwide. (Siena/NYT)
- Biden wins women in this poll by 15, college grads by 23 and independents by 3.
- Trump wins men by 10, non-college grads by 11 and Whites by 10.
- This poll also shows Biden with a job rating of 42% approve/53% disapprove and a favorability rating of 47% favorable/51% unfavorable.
- Trump’s favorability rating is 43% favorable/53% unfavorable.
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +10 (50-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump beat Biden by 8 points in Ohio in the last election. (The Hill/Emerson)
Among voters statewide
J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +4 (44-40)
RON’S COMMENT: This continues to be a close race with fairly small leads flip flopping. (Seat now R; The Hill/Emerson)
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +6 (52-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Warnock in a better position than three other recent polls that had challenger Walker with small leads.... Here, Warnockwins Democrats 97-3, independents 55-41 and Blacks 92-7. Walker wins Republicans 91-6 and Whites 66-31…. Says the pollster: “Herschel Walker is down but not out of the race for Senate. However, incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock rides the overwhelming support of African Americans and wins big on favorability, the catchall polling measurement for everything from character to potential job performance.” (Seat now D; Quinnipiac)
Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +1 (42-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Tight race. Masto is considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.... From the polling report: “A majority of Nevada voters (53%) disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as President, while 37% approve.... In a 2024 hypothetical matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 43% would support Trump and 40% would vote for Biden.” Biden's weakness in Nevada is a big problem for Masto. (Seat now D; The Hill/Emerson)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +11 (51-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Hassan was lucky to get Bolduc as her general election opponent. This poll gives her a clear lead. (Seat now D; The Hill/Emerson)
John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz: +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This survey was taken by a Republican firm and it indicates a tight race. If accurate, it could mean Republicans are coming home to Oz. (Seat now R; Trafalgar-R)
Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +1 (49-48)
RON’S COMMENT: The last Marquette poll in mid-August had Barnes ahead by 7 points, this one has Johnson up by 1. (Seat now R; Marquette)
- First round:
- Kelly Tshibaka (R): 43%
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R): 35%
- Patricia Chesbro (D): 13%
- Final round:
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R): 50%
- Kelly Tshibaka (R): 50%
RON’S COMMENT: Using Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, this poll finds Republican Tshibaka running ahead of Republican incumbent Murkowski in the first round, but shows a tie in the final round. (Seat now R; Fabrizio/Anzalone)
- In Alaska’s House race, Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leads Sarah Palin (R) 45-30 in the first round, with Nick Begich third at 20%. In the final round, Peltola beats Palin 53-47.
Among voters statewide
Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Polls are bouncing around here. Of the last four, two give Shapiro 2- to 3-point leads and two give him 11-point leads. This poll was taken by a Republican firm. (Seat now D; Trafalgar-R)
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) over Nan Whaley (D): +17 (50-33)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent DeWine maintains a solid lead. (Seat now R; The Hill/Emerson)
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +2 (50-48)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows the smallest lead for Kemp since late July.... Talk about polarized: Kemp wins Republicans 98-1 and Whites 73-26. Abrams wins Democrats 97-2, independents (50-48) and Blacks 91-8…. The previous Fox5 poll had Kemp up by 8. (Seat now R; Quinnipiac)
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +5 (45-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Abbott maintains the advantage, but less than a big one. (Seat now R; Univ. of Texas/Tribune)
- (Emerson) Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +5 (48-43)
- (SurveyUSA) Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +12 (48-36)
RON’S COMMENT: These two polls were taken about the same time and they paint two very different pictures of this race. Emerson shows Ronchetti within striking distance and SurveyUSA shows Lujan Grisham well ahead. (Seat now D)
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Scott Jensen (R): +7 (48-41-1)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Walz remains ahead, but the size of his lead has been bouncing around. His job rating is 52% approve/42% disapprove.... This is interesting: The top two issues for Walz voters are abortion (36%) and the economy (20%). The top two issues for Jensen voters are the economy (42%) and crime (37%). (Seat now DFL; Mason-Dixon)
- First round:
- Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R): 45%
- Les Gara (D): 24%
- Bill Walker (Ind): 17%
- Final round:
- Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R): 59%
- Les Gara (D): 41%
RON’S COMMENT: Using Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, incumbent Dunleavy has less than 50% in the first round, but 59% in the final round of voting. (Seat now R; Fabrizio/Anzalone)
HOW AMERICANS RATE THE ROYAL FAMILY
Among adults in the U.S. nationwide
% = Favorable / Unfavorable
- Prince William: 64%/15%
- Kate Middleton: 58%/12%
- Prince Harry: 52%/26%
- Princess Anne: 43%/12%
- Meghan Markle: 43%/37%
- Prince Edward: 38%/14%
- King Charles III: 35%/37%
- Camilla, Queen Consort: 28%/41%
- Prince Andrew: 26%/43%
RON’S COMMENT: Last Tuesday, we reported polling showing what Brits think of the royal family. This poll shows what Americans think of the British royal family:
- King Charles does a bit worse in the U.S. than at home. He is slightly net-negative in the U.S. (-2) and Camilla is more net-negative (-13).
- In the U.S., King Charles does much better among Democrats (47-32, +15) than he does among Republicans (33-49, -16) or independents (27-38, -11).
- Kate and William top the charts among Americans as they do among Brits.
- Meghan and Harry do much better in the U.S. than they do in Britain. Harry is -7 in Britain and +26 in the U.S. .... Meghan is -22 in Great Britain and +6 in the U.S.
- This poll finds that 14% of Americans think Charles will be an “above average” king, while 21% say “below average” and 31% say “average.”
- 23% of Americans think William should have succeeded Queen Elizabeth, while 36% believe Charles should have, as he has; 11% think no one should have succeeded to the thrown and 29% don’t know.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
HOW AMERICANS RATE THE ROYAL FAMILY: The Economist/YouGov, Sept, 10-13
STATE RACES: After each comment, the party that now controls the seat is indicated and the name of the pollster who did the poll is indicated. (Seat now D or R; Pollster's Name)
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron