Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, May 7, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 45%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 since Tuesday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
(Monmouth) Biden over Trump: +9 (50-41)
(Monmouth) Biden over Trump: +7 (47-40-L5)
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +4 (46-42)
(CNBC) Biden over Trump: +3 (47-44)
Average: Biden +5.3
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads all three new polls by varying margins…. The Monmouth poll shows Biden moving up from +4 to +9 over the past four weeks. That’s good news for Biden. The poll also shows in a three-way race Justin Amash, a Libertarian, getting 5% of the national vote.... Other insights:
- Monmouth shows Biden moving up from +4 to +9 over the past four weeks. That’s good news for Biden.
- CNBC has Biden moving down from +5 to +3 over the past four weeks. That’s not such good news for Biden.
- The Economist has Biden moving down from +6 to +4 over the past week. That’s also not such good news for Biden.
- In the Monmouth poll, 82% of Republicans feel very optimistic about the election, while 63% of Democrats feel that way.
- Vote by mail: 81% of voters say they usually vote in person and only 16% say they usually vote by mail, according to the Monmouth poll…. However: 51% of voters say they are likely to vote by mail in November. By party––66% of Democrats, 35% of Republicans and 48% of independents expect to vote by mail.
Biden over Trump: +23 (56-33)
Biden over Trump: +23 (55-32)
Biden over Trump: +19 (54-35)
RON’S COMMENT: No surprise that Biden leads the blue Tri-State region, although the size of his margins in Connecticut and New Jersey are bigger than they were in the 2016 election, while the New York margin is about the same.
ALLEGATION AGAINST BIDEN
Among voters nationwide
[Monmouth poll] Have you heard about an allegation that Joe Biden may have sexually assaulted a woman who worked in his Senate office in the 1990s, or have you not heard about this?
Not heard: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: These Monmouth numbers answer one crucial question––do voters even know about Tara Reade’s allegation? The answer is yes…. The Economist poll backs up this conclusion, it also shows that 86% have heard of the allegation.
[Monmouth poll] Do you think this allegation is probably true or probably not true?
Probably true: 37%
Probably not true: 32%
Don’t know: 31%
RON’S COMMENT: No majority has formed either way on this question, although more voters think Biden probably did it than not…. By party: 50% of Republicans, 43% of independents and 20% of Democrats think the allegation is probably true.
[Economist poll] Do you think that the allegation of sexual assault against Joe Biden generally is or is not credible?
Not credible: 23%
Haven’t heard enough: 31%
RON’S COMMENT: More voters say the allegation is credible than not…. By party: 16% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans say the allegation is credible.
[Economist poll] From what you know now, what do you think happened between Joe Biden and Tara Reade in 1993?
Sexual assault: 22%
Sexual harassment, but not sexual assault: 21%
Nothing inappropriate: 17%
Not sure: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: What’s troubling for Biden is that 43% of the electorate believes he committed either sexual assault or harassment (among Democrats, it’s 31%). However, only 17% of the electorate says what he did was nothing inappropriate (31% of Democrats agree)…. Biden needs to convince the 40% who are “not sure”––a substantial number to work with––that he did nothing inappropriate.
RATINGS ON HANDLING CORONAVIRUS
Among voters nationwide
How would you rate each of the following on their handling of the coronavirus?
Just fair/poor: 53%
Vice President Pence
Just fair/poor: 46%
Just fair/poor: 51%
Just fair/poor: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: All four have ratings that lean negative.
- Among independents, a crucial constituency for the November election, Trump is 34/57, Pence is 32/46, Congressional Democrats are21/58 and Congressional Republicans are 25/54….
- Handling of the outbreak is now clearly a drag on Trump’s political standing.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL VOTE
Among voters nationwide
(Politico) Democrats: +5
(Monmouth) Democrats: +10
(Economist) Democrats: +8
Average: Democrats: +7.7
RON’S COMMENT: Voters nationally lean toward Democratic candidates for Congress by an average 7.7-point margin. That’s good news for Democrats.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Economist/YouGov. May 3-5; CNBC, May 1-3; Monmouth, April 30-May 4
CONNECTICUT, NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY: Quinnipiac, April 30-May 4
ALLEGATION AGAINST BIDEN: The Economist/YouGov. May 3-5; Monmouth, April 30-May 4
RATINGS ON HANDLING CORONAVIRUS: Politico/Morning Consult, May 2-3
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL VOTE: Monmouth, April 30-May 4; The Economist/YouGov. May 3-5; Politico/Morning Consult, May 2-3
Subscription note: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron