Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 12, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
FRIDAY’S GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
The Economist: Democrats +6
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +12
CNN: Democrats +13
Emerson: Democrats +8
Current average: Democrats: +9.8
Last week: Democrats: +6.6
RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot has increased from 6.6 points last week to 9.8 points now.
Among voters in each state and district
TENNESSEE: Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +14 (54-40)
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +8 (51-43)
NEVADA: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Jacky Rosen (D): +2 (47-45)
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +9 (51-42)
WISCONSIN: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +14 (54-40)
RON’S COMMENT: TENNESSEE––This New York Times poll shows Republican Blackburn pulling away from Democrat Bredesen, posting a surprisingly wide 14-point lead. While some local observers doubt the margin is that wide, they admit the recent movement has favored Blackburn. The Kavanaugh issue has been a rough one for Bredesen, who ultimately announced his support for confirmation. Bredesen was a popular former governor. Blackburn is a strongly pro-Trump U.S. House member in a state that the president carried by 26 points in 2016. The average of recent polls has Blackburn ahead by 9 points. Handicappers rate the race either lean Republican or toss-up.
MICHIGAN––According to this survey, Democratic incumbent Stabenow is still well ahead, but the race has tightened. The two previous polls had her average lead at 20.5 points. This one has it at 9 points. This poll shows a clear Kavanaugh bounce, with Republicans cutting down the Democratic lead in the generic ballot from 13 to 5 points. Internals show that 8 out of 10 voters who approve of Trump are voting Republican and 8 out of 10 voters who disapprove of Trump are voting Democratic. The problem for Republicans is that Trump’s job rating in Michigan is 44% approve/53% disapprove (which matches his national rating average).
TEXAS––Was the Beto Boomlet mostly media hype? It’s starting to look that way. This survey by the New York Times shows that Cruz is more personally popular in this red state than the “Kennedyesque” O’Rourke. Cruz is 51% favorable/42% unfavorable. O’Rourkeis 41% favorable/44% unfavorable. The average of recent polls has Cruz up by 7.7 points. Handicappers see the race somewhat differently, rating it likely Republican, lean Republican or toss-up.
NEVADA––Yesterday, we incorrectly transposed the numbers showing Rosen ahead by 2 in this New York Times poll. Actually, Heller is ahead by 2 points, 47-45. The comment on the race was based on the correct numbers, however.
WISCONSIN––The average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Baldwin ahead by 12 points.
GEORGIA: Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +2 (48-46)
WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +10 (53-43)
CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +12 (54-42)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R): +8 (46-38-6)
RON’S COMMENT: GEORGIA––This is the third poll in a row showing Republican Kemp with a 2-point lead.
WISCONSIN––The previous Marquette poll we reported had GOP incumbent Walker ahead by 1 point. Now, this NBC/Marist poll has Democrat Evers up by a substantial 10 points. It should be noted that the Marquette poll was taken after the NBC/Marist poll.
CALIFORNIA––This poll last week had Newsom’s lead down to 5 points, which many local observers found hard to believe. Now, it has him up by 12 points. Democrats are counting on anti-Trump sentiment in the state, together with their money advantage, to stabilize Newsom’s margin as the race goes into the home stretch.
MICHIGAN––The average of recent polls puts Democrat Whitmer ahead by 9.3 points.
FLORIDA 27: Maria Salazar (R) over Donna Shalala (D): +2 (44-42-1)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Shalala, who served in Bill Clinton’s cabinet as Secretary of HHS and later as President of the Univ. of Miami, was supposed to be an easy winner. But, that’s not how the race is turning. This poll has her running slightly behind her GOP opponent. Republican Salazar is a former TV news anchor and reporter, having worked for Telemundo and Univision. The district includes parts of Miami Beach, Kendall, downtown Miami and Little Havana. It leans more Democratic than the state as a whole.
JOB RATINGS OF ALL 50 GOVERNORS
% = Approve/Disapprove
- Alabama, Kay Ivey: 65%/18%
- Alaska, Bill Walker: 25%/54%
- Arizona, Doug Ducey: 45%/38%
- Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson: 58%/26%
- California, Jerry Brown: 44%/41%
- Colorado, John Hickenlooper: 50%/32%
- Connecticut, Dan Malloy: 20%/70%
- Delaware, John Carney: 52%/28%
- Florida, Rick Scott: 49%/40%
- Georgia, Nathan Deal: 56%/24%
- Hawaii, David Ige: 52%/39%
- Idaho, Butch Otter: 51%/35%
- Illinois, Bruce Rauner: 25%/62%
- Indiana, Eric Holcomb: 50%/24%
- Iowa, Kim Reynolds: 43%/38%
- Kansas, Jeff Colyer: 40%/30%
- Kentucky, Matt Bevin: 30%/55%
- Louisiana, John Bel Edwards: 47%/34%
- Maine, Paul LePage: 40%/54%
- Maryland, Larry Hogan: 67%/17%
- Massachusetts, Charlie Baker: 70%/17%
- Michigan, Rick Snyder: 35%/50%
- Minnesota, Mark Dayton: 49%/37%
- Mississippi, Phil Bryant: 53%/25%
- Missouri, Mike Parson: 43%/17%
- Montana, Steve Bullock: 54%/28%
- Nebraska, Pete Ricketts: 51%/33%
- Nevada, Brian Sandoval: 56%/23%
- New Hampshire, Chris Sununu: 60%/24%
- New Jersey, Phil Murphy: 45%/35%
- New Mexico, Susana Martinez: 36%/54%
- New York, Andrew Cuomo: 49%/40%
- North Carolina, Roy Cooper: 49%/29%
- North Dakota, Doug Burgum: 54%/25%
- Ohio, John Kasich: 49%/32%
- Oklahoma, Mary Fallin: 17%/75%
- Oregon, Kate Brown: 39%/46%
- Pennsylvania, Tom Wolf: 48%/36%
- Rhode Island, Gina Raimondo: 44%/47%
- South Carolina, Henry McMaster: 49%/29%
- South Dakota, Dennis Daugaard: 59%/27%
- Tennessee, Bill Haslam: 55%/24%
- Texas, Greg Abbott: 57%/26%
- Utah, Gary Herbert: 56%/26%
- Vermont, Phil Scott: 50%/38%
- Virginia, Ralph Northam: 48%/26%
- Washington, Jay Inslee: 46%/33%
- West Virginia, Jim Justice: 43%/43%
- Wisconsin, Scott Walker: 42%/50%
- Wyoming, Matt Mead: 50%/27%
RON’S COMMENT: Once again, the ten most popular governors in their home states are all Republicans. However, seven of the bottom 10 are also Republicans…. Republicans now control 33 of the 50 governorships…. Charlie Baker (R-MA) and Larry Hogan (R-MD) remain the nation’s two most popular governors. Both are Republicans in Democratic states. Mary Fallin (R-OK) and Dan Malloy (D-CT) are stuck at the bottom…. These approval ratings are based on surveys taken over three months, which is a long spread. They are based on 359,057 surveys with registered voters conducted by Morning Consult, July 1 through Sept. 25.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TENNESSEE, TEXAS, NEVADA: NYT, Siena, Oct. 8-11
MICHIGAN: Mitchell, Sept. 30-Oct. 7
WISCONSIN: NBC/Marist, Sept. 30-Oct. 3
GEORGIA: Atlanta Journal Constitution, Oct. 3-8
CALIFORNIA: KFI/NBC4, OCT. 5-7
FLORIDA 27: Mason Dixon, OCT. 1-6
JOB RATINGS OF ALL 50 GOVERNORS: Morning Consult, July 1-Sept. 25