Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 14, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 48% (Fox News, Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 44%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (-1 from Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Fox) Biden +5 (51-46)
Average of last four polls: Biden +7.3
RON’S COMMENT: From the Fox poll’s internal data:
- 68% of Biden’s voters and 68% of Trump’s voters are “extremely interested”in this election. Another 20-22% are “very interested.”
- Favorability ratings: Biden 54% favorable/45% unfavorable, Harris 51% favorable/44% unfavorable, Trump 46% favorable/53% unfavorable and Pence 48% favorable/49% unfavorable.
- Trump’s approval ratings on issues: the economy 53%, foreign policy 46%, immigration 45%, healthcare 45%, race relations 40%.
- Among likely voters, Biden beats Trump on “policing and criminal justice issues” 52-45.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
ARIZONA (CBS): Biden +3
ARIZONA (Gravis): Biden +2
WISCONSIN (NYT):Biden +5
NORTH CAROLINA(Rasmussen):Trump +2
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds the lead in Arizona, but Trump is still pressing him in a close contest. Trump is helped in the state by two issues: energy exploration and manufacturing…. North Carolina has become one of the most interesting states. The Rasmussen poll, which often shows Trump doing better than other polls, has the president slightly ahead. The three previous polls had Biden ahead by narrow leads.
States Clinton carried in 2016:
MINNESOTA (CBS): Biden +9
MINNESOTA (NYT): Biden +9
NEVADA (NYT):Biden +4
NEW HAMPSHIRE (NYT): Biden +3
OREGON (DHM): Biden +12
RON’S COMMENT: If recent polling is any indication, Minnesota appears increasingly out of reach for Trump––a state he lost by a small margin in 2016. The last four polls put Biden ahead by an average of 8.8 points…. Nevada and New Hampshire are worth watching, they may be the only Hillary Clinton states that Trump has a shot at carrying this time. Trump lost Nevada by 2 points and New Hampshire by less than a point in 2016.
Among voters in each state
Sen. Tina Smith (D) over Jason Lewis (R): +7 (47-40)
COMMENT: The last three polls show incumbent Smith averaging a 9-point lead…. Handicappers rate this Senate race safe or likely Democratic.
(CBS) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +7 (49-42-3)
(Gravis) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +5 (48-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The last three polls show incumbent Kelly averaging a 6-point lead…. Handicappers rate the contest lean Democratic.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: Fox News, Sept. 7-10
CBS/YouGov, Sept. 9-11
NYT/Siena, Sept. 8-10
Gravis: Sept. 10-11
DHM: Sept. 3-8
Subscription note: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron