Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 11, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Remember Sept. 11
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Monmouth) Biden +7 (51-44)
(Morning Consult) Biden +6 (50-44)
Average of last five polls: Biden +8.4
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads likely voters by 7 points in this Monmouth poll and, among all registered voters, by 9 points. The new Morning Consult poll shows a slight narrowing of Biden’s lead since earlier in the summer…. Here are internal findings from the Monmouth poll:
- 71% of voters say Biden respects our military troops and veterans a great deal or some. In comparison, only 55% say the same about Trump, for a 16-point difference.
- 64% of voters think it is at least probable that the Russian government is trying to interfere in the election. 57% say the same about the Chinese government.
- 48% of voters are concerned that Trump is too friendly toward Russia and 37% are concerned that Biden may be too friendly toward China.
- Biden remains more popular than Trump. Biden rates 47% favorable/44% unfavorable. Trump rates 40% favorable/53% unfavorable.
Polling the "suckers and losers" issue:
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll (Sept. 3-8) shows that 50% of voters believe media reports that President Trump referred to U.S. soldiers as "suckers" and "losers." An additional 37% said they did not believe the reports and the rest were not sure.
From Morning Consult's polling among "military-affiliated" voters:
- Trump leads Biden by 10 points among military-affiliated voters. In 2016, Trump won this group by 18 points, based on exit polling. Keep in mind, there may be differences between a sample of "military-affiliated" voters and a sample based on a database of "active-duty military" personnel, which we recently reported in another poll.
- Biden is polling 7 points ahead of where Hillary Clinton was with military households at about the same time in the campaign.
- 53% of voters in military households approve of Trump's job performance.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
MICHIGAN (Morning Consult): Biden +10
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Biden +8
MICHIGAN (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +7
FLORIDA (Morning Consult): Biden +5
FLORIDA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +2
PENNSYLVANIA (Morning Consult): Biden +5
PENNSYLVANIA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +3
WISCONSIN (Morning Consult): Biden +8
WISCONSIN (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +5
WISCONSIN (Emerson): Biden +7
NORTH CAROLINA (Morning Consult): Biden +1
NORTH CAROLINA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Even
ARIZONA (Morning Consult): Biden +3
ARIZONA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +1
OHIO (Morning Consult): Trump +5
TEXAS (Morning Consult): Even
GEORGIA (Morning Consult): Trump +2
INDIANA (Indy Politics): Trump +14
States Clinton carried in 2016:
MINNESOTA: Biden +5
COLORADO: Biden +6
RON’S COMMENT: Observations––
- Good news for Biden: He's leading just about everywhere, albeit by slim margins in some states and polls. His leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, two critical states, are the widest.
- Good news for Trump: Ohio. Other polling has shown Biden edging Trump in the state, but this survey has Trump up by 5. Biden carried Ohio by 8 points four years ago.... Today's polls also show that Trump is still competitive in North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Florida, although he's slightly or modestly behind in most of them.
- What about Texas? This poll has the race tied, which in itself is notable given the Lone Star state’s Republican history. Trump won it in 2016 by 9 points. The average of the five most recent polls has Trump ahead in Texas, but by a fairly narrow 2.8 points.
Among voters nationwide
Mike Pence: 38%/42%
Kamala Harris: 43%/37%
RON'S COMMENT: At this point, Harris does better than Pence in national popularity. But––both VP candidates are running behind their principals. Harris' favorability is 4 points below running mate Biden's and Pence's favorability is 2 points below his running mate Trump's.
BIDEN’S PERCEIVED IDEOLOGY
Among voters nationwide
Independents say Biden is....
Liberal or very liberal: 35%
Conservative or very conservative: 9%
Not sure: 29%
Democrats say Biden is....
Liberal or very liberal: 30%
Conservative or very conservative: 11%
Not sure: 10%
Republicans say Biden is....
Liberal or very liberal: 71%
Conservative or very conservative: 8%
Not sure: 13%
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: Monmouth, Sept. 3-8; Morning Consult, Aug. 29-Sept. 7
FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA, OHIO, TEXAS, GEORGIA, MINNESOTA, COLORADO: Morning Consult, Aug. 29-Sept. 7
FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and GS Strategy Group (R) for the AARP, Aug. 28-Sept. 8
MICHIGAN: Rasmussen, Sept. 2-3
WISCONSIN: Emerson, Sept. 6-8
INDIANA: Indy Politics/Change Research (D), sept. 3-7
VP FAVORABILITY, BIDEN'S PERCEIVED IDEOLOGY: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 6-8
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron