Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, August 29, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Aug. 18
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to inch up the approval scale.... Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 45% (CBS). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (down 1 from Aug. 18), putting him at 11 points net negative.
PRESIDENT 2024: PENNSYLVANIA
Among voters statewide
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +5 (47-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This is bad news for Biden, losing swing-state Pennsylvania––a state he won by 1.2 points in the 2020 election…. 38% of voters say the Mar-a-Lago search made them more likely to vote for Trump and 34% said less likely. That result doesn’t mean much, however, because both numbers are well within each candidate’s base vote in the state.
Among voters statewide
- Mandela Barnes (D) over Sen. Ron Johnson (R): +3 (49-47)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP incumbent Johnson is struggling to gain a lead. One to watch.
- (F&M) John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +9 (45-36)
- (Emerson) John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +4 (48-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Two new polls show Fetterman maintains a lead, although the Franklin & Marshall poll (which includes undecided leans) puts him much further ahead than the Emerson poll….Personal dislike for Oz is hurting him badly: The Emerson poll shows Fetterman’s favorability rating to be 48% favorable/46% unfavorable and Oz at a decidedly negative 41% favorable/56% unfavorable rating…. Worth noting: OZ has never led Fetterman in a public poll…. The seat is now held by a Republican so a Fetterman win would be a GOP net loss.
- The pollster says: “Eighty percent of undecided Senate voters say Fetterman’s recent stroke has no impact on their vote, whereas over a third, of undecided voters, 34%, say Oz’s New Jersey residence makes them less likely to vote for him come November."
- J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D): +5 (50-45)
RON’S COMMENT: This Trafalgar (R) poll shows Vance with a modest lead. The seat is now held by a Republican.
- (Missouri Scout) Eric Schmitt (R) over Trudy Valentine (D): +11 (51-40-2)
- (SLU) Eric Schmitt (R) over Trudy Valentine (D): +11 (49-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Republican Schmitt wins Republicans 88-5 and Democrat Valentine wins Democrats 89-4 and independents 44-41 in the Scout poll…. Donald Trump carried Missouri by 19 points in 2016 and by 15 points in 2020.... The former president is 51% favorable/45% unfavorable and Joe Biden is 37% favorable/56% unfavorable in the Scout survey…. The seat is now held by a Republican .
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +5 (47-42-5)
RON’S COMMENT: Bennet remains ahead, but Democrats need to watch this one carefully. Could be a sleeper for the GOP.
Among voters statewide
- (EPIC/MRA) Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +11 (50-39)
- (Trafalgar-R) Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Dixon Tudor (R): +4 (49-45-3)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Whitmer leads both Republican Dixon in both trial heats, but does much better in the EPIC poll.
- Gov. Tony Evers (D) and Tim Michels (R): even (48-48-2)
RON’S COMMENT: This Trafalgar (R) poll shows a tie with a tiny undecided..... Voters in this state must be exhausted by the tight, bloody races they've hosted over the past decade.
- Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +7 (47-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Lujan Grisham is ahead, but Ronchetti (a former TV meteorologist) is within striking distance. The state’s politics favor Democrats, but this race is far from over…. Lujan Grisham’s base is mostly women (she’s up 14) and Hispanics (she’s up 24). She edges independents by 5. Ronchetti wins Anglos 46-42. The race comes down to whether Ronchetti can gain a solid lead among independents.
- (F&M) Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +12 (48-36)
- (Emerson) Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +3 (47-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Similar to the Pennsylvania Senate polling above, the Democrat in the gubernatorial race posts a substantial lead in the F&M poll, but a tighter edge in the Emerson poll.
- Gov. Mike DeWine (R) over Nan Whaley (D): +16 (54-38)
RON’S COMMENT: DeWine has had some tough battles in his long career, but now that he has the GOP nomination and, seemingly, his party’s base secure, it looks like he’s the clear favorite for re-election.
- Gov. Jared Polis (D) over Heidi Ganahl (R): +5 (47-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Polis posts a modest lead in this Trafalgar-R poll.
- Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) over Brian Dahle (R): +24 (55-31)
RON’S COMMENT: Newsom has already won twice in the past four years; looks like he’s headed for another big one.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW MEXICO: Journal Poll, Aug. 19-25
PENNSYLVANIA: Emerson College, Aug. 22-23; F&M, Aug. 15-21
WISCONSIN: Trafalgar (R), Aug. 22-25
MISSOURI: Missouri Scout, Aug. 24-25; SLU. Aug. 8-16
MICHIGAN: Trafalgar (R), Aug. 22-25; EPIC/MRA, Aug. 18-23
COLORADO: Trafalgar (R), Aug. 15-19
OHIO: Trafalgar (R), Aug. 16-19
CALIFORNIA: Berkeley, Aug. 9-15
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron