Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 16, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls. The range is 39% (Gallup) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 5% today, which is 1 points higher than his approval.
Among voters statewide
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +12 (51-39)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Democratic incumbent Donnelly sporting a solid lead over GOP challenger Braun––in a state that Trump carried by 19 points in 2016. The poll also shows Trump’s job approval to be 46% in Indiana, a bit higher than his national rating. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
Among voters nationwide
“How much, if anything, have you heard in the news recently about the Trump administration plan to create a sixth branch of the armed forces called the Space Force?”
A lot: 29%
A little: 52%
“Do you approve or disapprove of the Trump administration’s plan to create the Space Force?”
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Democrats, 34% of independents and 68% of Republicans approve of Trump’s Space Force plan.
Among voters nationwide
“Thinking about the nation as a whole, do you think the number
of violent crime incidents (homicide, sexual assault, robbery, serious assault) over the past 12 months is higher or lower compared to ten years ago?”
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters believe violent crime is higher now than it was 10 years ago. By party; 51% offDemocrats, 46% of independents, 40% of Republicans, 41% of men, 57% of women, 49% of whites, 52% of blacks and 42% of Hispanics say violent crime is higher now. The poll also shows that 52% of all voters are worried that they or someone in their family will be victims of violent crime.
“Which would you prefer to see in your local area?”
A larger police presence than currently exists: 32%
A smaller police presence than currently exists: 10%
No change: 45%
Don’t know: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: 30% of Democrats, 31% of independents, 36% of Republicans, 30% of men, 34% of women, 33% of whites and 32% of blacks want a larger police presence.
TV ADS ON GUN CONTROL
USA Today/Kantar Media study of 2018 ads
So far in this election for U.S. House, Senate and Governor:
- More pro-gun control ads: Democrats have run 18,416 TV ads favoring gun control. That compares to 4,450 two years ago and 558 four years ago.
- Less anti-gun control ads: Fewer ads from both parties (mostly Republican) opposing gun control have run so far in this election, 8,897. Two years ago, it was 12,979 and four years ago it was 8,598.
- For more information: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/15/democrats-flooding-airwaves-pointed-gun-control-ads/948376002/
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
INDIANA: Trafalgar (R), July 31-Aug. 7
SPACE FORCE, VIOLENT CRIME: The Economist/YouGov Poll August 12 - 14, 2018 - 1500 US Adults
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.