Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 15, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. The range is 39% (Gallup) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43.3%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval.
Among voters statewide
Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +4 (48-44)
RON’S COMMENT: For the Senate seat once held by Andrew Jackson and Andrew Johnson––this poll puts Republican Blackburn, a member of the U.S. House, ahead of Democrat Bredesen, a popular former governor. The winner will replace Sen. Bob Corker (R), who is not seeking re-election. Previous polling has generally put Bredesen on top. If this new poll is accurate, it’s good news for Republicans, who have been working hard to save the seat…. This poll also shows Trump’s approval rating to be 54% in Tennessee, which is much higher than his national rating…. If Blackburn wins, she will be the first woman ever to represent Tennessee in the Senate. If Bredesen wins, he will be the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee since Al Gorewon re-election in 1990. Handicappers rate this race lean Republican or toss-up.
Senate job ratings: This poll shows Tennessee Sen. Corker (R) with a 38% approve/46% disapprove job rating. Sen. Lamar Alexander’s (R) job rating is 45% approve/40% disapprove.
Among voters statewide
Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +11 (51-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Businessman Lee wins Republicans 88-7 and independents 39-42. Dean, a former mayor of Nashville, wins Democrats 79-16…. Handicappers rate this race likely Republican…. Current Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is term-limited. He has a job rating of 60% approve/29% disapprove.
U.S. HOUSE: NEW JERSEY 3
Among voters districtwide
Andrew Kim (D) over Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) +1 (45-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Congressman MacArthur, who has a reputation as one of the more bipartisan members of the House, is in a virtual dead heat with Democratic challenger Kim, based on this new poll’s historical midterm turnout model…. Neither candidate is particularly well-known in this district: MacArthur’s rating is 30% favorable and 19% unfavorable and Kim is 20% favorable/11% unfavorable…. Voters split on whether they want Democrats (38%) or Republicans (36%) to control Congress, with 24% saying it doesn’t matter…. The district includes two areas: Eastern Ocean County, located mainly in the NYC media market, is heavily Republican. MacArthur leads it by 15 points in the poll. Western Burlington County, located in the Philadelphia media market, leans more Democratic. Kim leads it by 10 points. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.
SOCIALISM & CAPITALISM
Among U.S. adults nationwide
“Just off the top of your head, would you say you have a positive or negative image of each of the following. How about…”
% = Positive/Negative
Free Enterprise: 79%/17%
RON’S COMMENT: The positive image of socialism hasn’t changed much in the U.S. over the past decade. Two years ago, it was 35%. Eight years ago, it was 36%.... There is a big difference by party, however: While 57% of Democrats have a positive view of socialism, only 16% of Republicans do…. 47% of Democrats have a positive view of capitalism, while 71% of Republicans do…. Also note: Americans like the concept of “free enterprise” much more than they like the concept of “capitalism.” Candidates may want to consider that when developing campaign messaging this year.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TENNESSEE: Gravis, Aug. 9-11
NEW JERSEY 3: Monmouth, Aug. 7-9
SOCIALISM & CAPITALISM: Gallup, July 30-Aug. 5
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.