Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 5, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31% (+2 from last week)
Bernie Sanders: 27%
Kamala Harris: 11% (+1)
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 6% (-1)
Cory Booker: 4% (-1)
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1%
Sherrod Brown: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Eric Holder: 1%
John Delaney: 0% (-1)
Terry McAuliffe: 0% (-1)
RON’S COMMENT: This national poll shows Biden has perked up a little since last week’s sounding with scant change below him…. Biden and Sanders, together, are pulling 58% of the Democratic vote compared to 31% for the next five candidates. In the subsample of early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada), Biden leads with 34% (+4 from last week), Sanders is second with 29% (+2) and Harris is third with 8% (-3)…. This polling was completed before Hickenlooper’s candidacy declaration and Holder’s announcement that he’s not running.
Among voters nationwide
Which of the following statements is closest to your own view of the two-party system today, in terms ofhow well it defines issues and provides choices for voters….
- The two-party system works fairly well: 11%
- The two-party system has real problems, but with some improvements it can still work well: 47%
- The two-party system is seriously broken, and the country needs a third party: 38%
- Not sure: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: 38% of voters say the country needs a third party––that’s higher than it’s ever been in this poll, stretching back to 1995 when it was 28%.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE TRAITS
Among Democratic voters nationwide
In selecting a presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, which of the following is most important to you?
A candidate with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump: 40%
A candidate who comes closest to your views on issues: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: Two out of five Democratic voters prefer nominating a presidential candidate who can beat Trump. In 2015, only 20% of Democrats said they’d prefer nominating a candidate who could beat the GOP nominee.
In thinking about how the eventual Democratic nominee for president in 2020 approaches issues like healthcare, climate change, college affordability, and economic opportunity, which of the following comes closer todescribing the candidate you prefer?
Someone who proposes larger scale policies that cost more and mightbe harder to pass into law, but could bring major change on these issues: 55%
Someone who proposes smaller scale policies that cost less and might
be easier to pass into law, but will bring less change on these issues: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of Democratic voters favor a nominee who proposes larger scale policies that cost more.
Who was the first U.S. President to be publicly inaugurated on March 5th, because March 4th was a Sunday?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, Feb. 25-March 3
TWO-PARTY SYSTEM, DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE: WSJ/NBC, Feb. 24-27
AS WE MOVE INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, SEND A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO FRIENDS AND CLIENTS WHO WOULD ENJOY RECEIVING IT. GO TO LUNCHTIMEPOLITICS.COM AND ENTER THEIR NAMES AND EMAILS.
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
James Monroe. In 1821, he was publicly inaugurated on March 5.