Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 9, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (IBD/TIPP) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating. With few exceptions, this is about the best Trump has ever done as president.
6NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
The Hill-Harris/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 36%/32% = 34%
Bernie Sanders: 19%/23% = 21%
Kamala Harris: 9%/9% = 9%
Beto O’Rourke: 7%/8% = 7.5%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%/7% = 6.5%
Cory Booker: 6%/4% = 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%/5% = 4.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/2% = 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 2%/2% = 2%
Julian Castro: 1%/1% = 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%/1% = 1%
John Delaney: - /1% = 0.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: - /1% = 0.5%
Steve Bullock: - /1% = 0.5%
John Hickenlooper: - /1% = 0.5%
Tim Ryan: - /1% = 0.5%
Jan Inslee: - /1% = 0.5%
RON’S COMMENT: The Hill-Harris poll shows Biden holding a strong first place position among Democratic voters despite the recent accusations. The Morning Consult poll also shows Biden holding first place, although his vote percentage is down 3 points from two weeks ago and down 1 point since last week. Perhaps most concerning for Biden is his favorability ratings in the Morning Consult poll. It shows his hard positive rating (“very favorable”) among Democrats declining from 44% two weeks ago to 35% now. His overall rating (including “very” and “somewhat” favorable) remains a strong 75% favorable/15% unfavorable, although it’s down a bit from 78% favorable/11% unfavorable two weeks ago.
Since last week, Sanders dropped 2 points in the Morning Consult poll, Buttigieg went up 2 and Harris went up 1 …. Booker is doing better in the Hill-Harris survey than in any poll since February…. Getting rave reviews on the campaign trail, Buttigieg is slowly moving up in national soundings, although he’s still down in seventh place based on the average of the last two polls (see above, 4.5%). Just seven weeks ago, however, he was polling zero in some national surveys.
In the Morning Consult subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 38% (same as two weeks ago), then Sanders 24%, Warren 7% and Harris 6%.
TAXES PAID THIS YEAR
Among voters nationwide
[ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY FILED THEIR TAXES THIS YEAR] Did you pay more in taxes than you thought you would this year, less in taxes than you thought you would this year, or was it about what you expected?
Paid more in taxes than expected: 30%
Paid more in taxes than expected: 25%
Paid about what expected: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: 42% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans and 32% of independents say they paid more in taxes than they expected.
REGULATION OF POLITICAL ADS ON SOCIAL MEDIA
Among adults nationwide
RON’S COMMENT: Yesterday, we ran the following poll results but did not distinguish answer options between “should” and “should NOT” regulate. Here are the full responses…
Do you think the government should or should not regulate how social media companies (eg. Facebook and Twitter) run political advertising?
Government should regulate: 33%
Government should NOT regulate: 36%
Not sure: 30%
Do you think the government should or should not regulate how social media companies (eg. Facebook and Twitter) allow groups to target advertising in order to prevent illegal discrimination?
Government should regulate: 41%
Government should NOT regulate: 28%
Not sure: 31%
Do you think the government should or should not regulate how social media companies (eg. Facebook and Twitter) safeguard the personal data of their users?
Government should regulate: 56%
Government should NOT regulate: 21%
Not sure: 23%
Among voters statewide
This past week, former South Carolina Sen. Fritz Hollings died at 97. At the time of his passing, he was the oldest living former U.S. senator. Who is now the oldest living former senator?
(See answer below)
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Hill-Harris, April 5-6; Morning Consult, April 1-7
TAXES PAID THIS YEAR: PPP (D), March 27-28
REGULATION OF POLITICAL ADS ON SOCIAL MEDIA: The Economist/YouGov, March 31-April 2
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Jocelyn Burdick (D) of North Dakota. At 97, she became the oldest living former U.S. senator upon Fritz Hollings’ death last week. Burdick was appointed U.S. senator in September, 1992, after her husband, Sen. Quentin Burdick (D), died. She did not run for the full term. Kent Conrad (D) won the Burdick seat in November, 1992.
Interesting twist: Conrad was already serving in the state’s other Senate seat when Quentin Burdick died. Though Conrad did not seek re-election to his seat in 1992, he jumped into the race for Burdick’s vacancy and won, swapping seats that December.