Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, March 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Looking ahead to the next election for president, if Donald Trump runs for re-election as the Republican candidate, will you definitely vote for Trump in that election, probably vote for Trump, probably vote for the Democratic candidate, or definitely vote for the Democratic candidate?
Definitely vote for Trump: 27%
Probably vote for Trump: 14%
Probably vote for the Democratic candidate: 15%
Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: This WSJ/NBC poll shows a total of 41% of voters plan on voting for Trump and 48% plan on voting for the Democratic candidate. In addition, 2% plan on voting for a third party, 6% volunteer that it depends who’s running and 3% say they’re unsure…. The good news for Trump is that the 41% planning to vote for him is up 3 points since December 2018 and up 5 points since December 2017.
SOUTH CAROLINA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Among Democratic primary voters:
Joe Biden: 37%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 1%
Sherrod Brown: 1%
Julian Castro: 0%
Pete Buttigieg: 0%
John Delaney: 0%
RON’S COMMENT: South Carolina has become a big deal on the presidential primary schedule and this poll shows Biden well ahead of the rest of the Democratic field. Among the state’s large black Democratic constituency, Biden leads with 43%, Sanders gets 15%, Harris registers 9% and Booker is at 7%.
Among all general election voters:
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +4 (52-48)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +8 (54-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +8 (54-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Cory Booker (D): +8 (54-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +12 (56-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +12 (56-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Amy Klobuchar (D): +12 (56-44)
Three-way general election:
Donald Trump (R) 53%, Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%, Howard Schultz (Ind) 7%
Donald Trump (R) 51%, Bernie Sanders (D) 42%, Howard Schultz (Ind) 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 14 points in South Carolina in 2016. Now his lead ranges from 4 points (against Biden) to 12 points (against Harris, O’Rourke or Klobuchar)…. South Carolina has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980.
Among adults nationwide
% = Positive/Negative
Michelle Obama: 57%/25%
Melania Trump: 39%/23%
Donald Trump: 42%/50%
RON’S COMMENT: The two first ladies both rate net positive, while Donald Trump’s rating leans negative. Michelle Obama does better than anybody…. Capitalism is rated net positive, but only gets a positive rating from half of those polled. Socialism is viewed positively by fewer than one in five Americans. About a quarter of those surveyed have neutral feelings toward both capitalism and socialism.
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
Among adults nationwide
I’m going to read to you two statements about the role of government, and I’d like to know which one comes closer to your point of view?
- Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people: 55%
- Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage saying government should do more is down 3 points from a year ago and up 9 points from 2014.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Emerson College, Feb. 28-March 2
TRUMP RE-ELECT, RATINGS, ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: Wall Street Journal/NBC, Feb. 24-27
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.