Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, December 4, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
DECEMBER PUBLISHING SCHEDULE:
Lunchtime Politics will be published Tuesdays and Thursdays between now and Dec. 20. We will resume daily weekday publication January 3rd.
Among voters nationwide
If a vote for president of the United States were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect President Trump, consider someone else, or definitely vote to elect someone else, or would you not vote?
Definitely vote to re-elect Trump: 35%
Consider someone else: 17%
Definitely vote to elect someone else: 45%
Would not vote: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Looking at Trump’s average job ratings we report in this newsletter, it’s fair to say that his base is about 44% of the electorate. Looking at this poll, it’s also fair to say that Trump’s hard base is about 35%.... In this poll, 70% of Republicans say they’ll definitely support Trump, while 19% say they’ll consider someone else and 7% say they’ll definitely vote for someone else…. 2% of Democrats say they’ll definitely support Trump, while 11% say they’ll consider someone else and 84% say they’ll definitely vote to elect someone else…. 31% of independents say they’ll definitely support Trump, while 26% say they’ll consider someone else and 40% say they’ll definitely vote for someone else…. Also: 38% of men, 31% of women, 17% of voters under 35 years old, 40% of whites, 6% of blacks, 38% of Protestants, 51% of Catholics and 21% of others (non-Protestants and non-Catholics) say they’ll definitely vote for Trump…. It’s also worth noting that 14% of people who voted for Trump in 2016 say they’ll consider voting for someone else next time and 4% say they definitely vote to elect someone else.
MOTIVATED BY PARTISAN POLITICS?
Among adults nationwide
I’m going to mention some people and organizations. For each, please tell me if you think the decisions they make are usually motivated by partisan politics, sometimes motivated by partisan politics, or mostly not motivated by partisan politics.
% = Usually motivated/Sometimes motivated/Mostly not
U.S. Congress: 58%/18%/13%
President of the U.S.: 53%/16%/24%
News media: 46%/21%/24%
Armed Forces: 25%/16%/50%
Your local police department: 24%/16%/48%
Supreme Court: 28%/28%/34%
Department of Justice: 32%/26%/29%
Robert Mueller: 30%/15%/33%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans see its institutions engulfed by partisan politics. Fewer than four out of ten survey respondents believe the FBI, the Supreme Court and Robert Mueller are mostly NOT motivated by partisan politics. Fewer than three out of ten say POTUS, the news media and the DOJ are not motivated by partisanship. Only 13% say that about Congress. The only two entities to reach or come close to 50% are the Armed Forces and local police.
DISCRIMINATION IN THE U.S.
Among adults statewide
Now, I’m going to mention some groups of people. For each, please tell me if you think these groups, living here in the United States, experience a lot of discrimination, a little discrimination, or virtually no discrimination.
% = Experience a lot of discrimination/Experience a little discrimination
White men: 13%/39%
Asian Americans: 14%/55%
African Americans: 52%/34%
LGBT people: 52%/31%
RON’S COMMENT: 62% of Americans believe Christians experience at least some discrimination, while 74% say that about Jews, 85% say that about Muslims and 52% say that about Atheists. Also, 75% say women experience at least some discrimination, as do 52% of white men, 69% of Asian Americans, 86% of blacks and 83% of LGBT people.
George H.W. Bush ran twice for the U.S. Senate in Texas and lost. Name the two Democrats who defeated him?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
RELIGIOUS DISCRIMINATION IN THE U.S., PARTISAN POLITICS, TRUMP RE-ELECT: Grinnell College/Selzer, Nov. 24-27
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Ralph Yarborough and Lloyd Bentsen. In 1964, Republican Bush ran against Democratic Sen. Yarborough and lost by 12 points. In 1970, incumbent Yarborough lost the Democratic primary to Lloyd Bentsen, who went on to defeat Bush in the general election by nearly 7 points. Of course, Bush ultimately got his comeuppance. In the 1988 presidential election, he defeated the Democratic ticket of Michael Dukakis for president and the same Lloyd Bentsen for vice president.