Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, December 13, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (CNN) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
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2020 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Among likely Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Beto O’Rourke: 15%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Sherrod Brown: 7%
Someone else: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: This trial heat includes only some of the potential Democratic presidential candidates, which limits its usefulness. In any case, it shows Biden on top and Sanders second among Democratic voters. It also has O’Rourke winning the “new face” primary. Showings by Harris and Brown are pretty good for candidates without high national name ID. Warren’s prospects have slipped since her DNA announcement.
RATING 2020 DEMOCRATIC PROSPECTS ON PRESIDENTIAL POTENTIAL
Among Democratic voters nationwide
(ASKED OF DEMOCRATS ONLY): I’m going to read you a list of potential presidential candidates. For each one, please tell me what kind of president you think they would be––excellent, good, only fair, or poor
% = Excellent + Good / Only Fair + Poor
Joe Biden: 70%/20%
Bernie Sanders: 63%/28%
Elizabeth Warren: 38%/33%
Beto O’Rourke: 36%/18%
Cory Booker: 34%/24%
Kamala Harris: 33%/21%
Michael Bloomberg: 27%/38%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 21%/25%
Amy Klobuchar: 19%/17%
Sherrod Brown: 21%/15%
John Delaney: 10%/21%
John Hickenlooper: 11%/18%
Tom Steyer: 12%/24%
Michael Bennet: 10%/18%
Howard Shultz: 9%/18%
Richard Ojeda: 11%/17%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Democrats, Biden has the highest positive rating (70%) as a potential president and Bloomberg has the highest negative rating (38%). Biden and Sanders have the best overall numbers among Democratic voters––but, O’Rourke, Harris and Booker have the best field positions in terms of growth potential. Warren’s negative rating is creeping up toward her positive number. If this continues, her ability to expand support will be limited. Looks like Steyer’s massive ad spending may have bought him some name ID, but it hasn’t helped him much among rank-and-file Democratic voters. Democrats are not thrilled with wealthy business people as potential presidents (i.e., Bloomberg, Schultz and Steyer all have higher negatives than positives)––although of the three, expect Bloomberg to run the strongest campaign, should he go to the post.
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM, TRUMP’S POLICIES
Among voters nationwide
A year from now, do you think the economy will be better or worse?
RON’S COMMENT: Two years ago during the Trump transition, 56% of Americans thought the economy would be better over the next year. Now, it’s down to 45%, according to the latest Fox News poll. Of course, partisanship drives the results. While only only 22% of Democrats say the economy will be better next year, 73% of Republicans and 37% of independents say so.
Have you personally been helped or hurt by the economic policies of the Trump administration, or have they not made much of a difference either way?
No difference: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are not good for Trump’s ability to win re-election based on the issue of a good economy. A little over one in five Americans think his policies have helped them economically, and almost as many say they’ve hurt. Also: 6% of Democrats, compared to 43% of Republicans and 16% of independents, say Trump’s economic policies have helped them personally, according to the Fox poll.
PELOSI FOR SPEAKER
Among Democrats nationwide
(ASKED OF DEMOCRATS ONLY): Do you think Nancy Pelosi should become the next Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives or do you think it should be some other Democrat?
Nancy Pelosi should be Speaker: 43%
Some other Democrat should be Speaker: 26%
Not sure: 21%
Don’t care: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Although less than a majority, most Democrats favor Pelosi. However, independents, who are often key swing voters in general elections, oppose Pelosi as Speaker by a 37-10 margin.
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Mueller is handling his job as special counsel?
RON’S COMMENT: Mueller’s approval rating is 44 points higher among Democrats than Republicans. Among independents, he’s 33% approve/33% disapprove. Going forward, the special counsel’s national approval rating becomes increasingly important.
Among adults nationwide
How do you rate listening to Christmas music?
Great or good: 53%
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans like Christmas music more than Democrats, 65% vs. 53%. Women also like it more than men, 59% vs. 47%.
Do you favor or oppose banning the Christmas song, "Baby, It’s Cold Outside"?
Favor banning the song: 10%
Neither favor nor oppose: 22%
Oppose banning the song: 57%
RON’S COMMENT: By a wide margin, Americans oppose banning the song "Baby, It’s Cold Outside.” Some have suggested that the song should be banned because, they claim, it’s manipulative and wrong. Most Americans disagree with that sentiment.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
2020 DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Emerson College, Dec. 6-9
RATING 2020 DEMOCRATIC PROSPECTS, ECONOMIC OPTIMISM, TRUMP’S POLICIES: Fox News, Dec. 9-11
PELOSI FOR SPEAKER, MUELLER APPROVAL, CHRISTMAS MUSIC: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 9-11