There are five reasons why it was virtually inevitable the White House is making military spending an issue this year.

1. The Pentagon Has Become Increasingly Unpopular. After foreign aid and NASA, military spending is the area of the federal budget that has the least amount of public support. Many national polls conducted over the past year show that more than half the country thinks that reductions in defense spending are warranted. The Obama administration could not possibly fail to notice that, while the generality of “a strong defense” continues to be popular, there is a growing feeling that it can be provided at a much lower cost.
2. The President’s Focus On The Deficit Made A Close Look At The Pentagon Impossible To Avoid. This is simple math more than complex politics. The political difficulties with reductions in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and increases in taxes, plus the limited amount of spending (at least by federal standards) in annual nondefense appropriations meant that there was no place else for the White House to turn for deficit reductions but to national security programs.
3. The GOP Is Already On Record In Favor Of Cutting Military Spending. No matter how often congressional Republicans now try to come up with alternatives that would eliminate or mitigate the national security “sequester” that was triggered when the anything-but-super committee failed in late November to agree on a deficit reduction plan, the fact remains that they first agreed to throw the Pentagon under the budget bus when they voted for the Budget Control Act in early August. That allows the White House to claim bi-partisan support for Pentagon reductions.
4. There Is Ample Hi-Level GOP Expert Opinion That Pentagon Spending Can Be Cut Without Sacrificing National Security. A number of highly respected Republican military experts are on record with ideas about how the Pentagon can and should be cut. This includes Colin Powell, Robert Gates, Dov Zakheim and even Donald Rumsfeld, all of who have all offered specific plans for cutting one or more parts of the military budget. In fact, Powell was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Dick Cheney was secretary of defense when Ronald Reagan reduced the DOD budget by 25 percent. The Obama White House knows it can use all these to validate its claim that the reductions can be done safely. (NOTE: Quotes from Reagan, Cheney and Powell on this subject should be expected in the State of the Union Address.)
5. The War In Afghanistan Is Increasingly Unpopular. The polls indicate an overwhelming preference for reducing or eliminating the spending associated with activities in Afghanistan rather than on virtually any domestic activity.

None of this should be a surprise: The military contracting community has been reading these same tealeaves for months. Indeed, the Aerospace Industry Association’s analysis following the super committee’s failure that highlighted the job losses associated with the sequester cuts has to be seen at least in part as an attempt to deal with the same factors that is motivating the Obama administration.

A Continuing Resolution For 2013 Is Now Even More Likely

Not only are the Obama administration’s $450 billion-over-10-years military spending cuts not likely to be enacted before the 2012 election, but no significant deficit reductions of any kind should be expected to be enacted this year.

The witches’ brew of hyper-partisan politics, the 2012 election, the influence within the GOP of its tea party wing and the narrow majorities in the House and Senate will combine this year to do what they did in 2011: Make a deal on any aspect of the budget impossible to achieve. More energy and effort will be expended this year on avoiding, delaying, or reducing the sequester’s military spending cuts than in developing an agreement on any additional Pentagon reductions.

In addition, given the narrow majorities in both houses, the spending reductions that were outlined by Pentagon officials today will provide the representatives and senators from the congressional districts and states that would be harmed with ample opportunities to make life miserable for the Democratic and Republican leaders.

As a result, a fiscal 2013 Department of Defense appropriation is now even less likely than it was before, and it wasn’t that likely to begin with. A continuing resolution that keeps Pentagon spending at or near current levels and keeps existing policy in place is the most likely outcome until at least a lame duck session.

Contractors Should Be Most Concerned About 2013 And Beyond

The fact that the Obama administration’s proposed Pentagon spending reductions are not likely to be enacted in 2012 should bring little comfort to the contracting community.

Even if they’re not put in place this year, reducing the military budget from current baseline levels will be hotly debated this year and be a campaign issue. This is likely to change the budget debate that has occurred since at least 2001 from how much should
military spending rise to which reductions are most acceptable. That’s a significant change.

Without an external shock that alters this outlook such as a terrorist attack or new overseas contingency, this changed debate will last at least until a significant deficit reduction plan is adopted, and, regardless of who gets elected and which political party controls each house of Congress, it will make the Pentagon as much a part of that discussion as Medicare and Medicaid.

Qorvis partner Stan Collender is one of the foremost U.S. experts on the federal budget, federal spending and revenues, the national debt and the congressional budget process.

Stan writes the very popular “Fiscal Fitness” column for the prestigious Capital Hill newspaper Roll Call. In 2009, the Wall Street Journal named Stan’s blog — “Capital Gains and Games” — one of the top 25 economic blogs in the United States. Stan is also the author of The Guide to the Federal Budget, which was one of the most assigned texts on the subject during the 19 years an annual edition was published.

Stan frequently advises banks, investment banks, hedge funds, and other major Wall Street players on fiscal policy, federal budget developments and the likely outcome of current debates. He also works closely with nonprofits, corporations and associations on spending and tax issues, especially on the federal budget process and politics.

Stan has been involved with the congressional budget process since 1974 and is one of only a handful of people who has worked for both the House and Senate Budget Committees. As a member of the House Budget Committee staff, he served as administrator of the Task Force on State and Local Government. For the Senate Budget Committee, he was responsible for analyzing defense spending. Stan also served as the administrator of the Task Force on the Budget of the Northeast-Midwest Congressional Coalition, a bipartisan group of representatives from the states in those regions.

For this post, I want to speak directly to those seeking employment. Those with a steady gig are encouraged to read on, but for today, my focus is on my unemployed friends.

Ladies and gentleman, you face an uphill battle. No matter if you are fresh out of college or a decorated veteran of the marketing battlefield, you are no match for the weakened economy. Companies are now carefully considering every hiring decision and only those with the perfect set of tools make the cut. So, let’s add another tool to your belt.

You need a blog. This is not a suggestion – it’s an order. Pick a topic you are passionate about and start writing. The topic is of less importance than the quality of your writing. Your goal is to be engaging, sound smart, and show your worth.

A blog is a powerful tool because of its ability to display worth. Posting regularly shows you are dedicated and diligent. And, in addition to displaying your writing abilities, it also shows a potential employer you’re in tune with an ever-changing online community.

Blogging is a gateway that provides invaluable training on how to interact with others through a number of different channels. For instance, you will learn how to leverage Twitter, Facebook, StumbleUpon, and other platforms to push your message and attract readers to your site. Additionally, by maintaining a blog, you will discover the intricacies of data analytics and how they correlate with your content. Most importantly, you gain the ability to speak fluently about new media marketing. Recruiters or potential employers at communications firms drool over candidates that require little training in these areas.

During my time as a high school football coach, I often told my players, “put yourself in the best position to win.” The advice: While the situation will rarely be ideal, with the right skills or mentality, you will make that play. This same idea holds true for gaining employment.

Blogging will put you in the best position to win. Add your blog URL to your resume and always carry hard copies of your most popular posts to interviews. Professionalize your blog and maybe think about posting about industry-related content. Finally, keep screen shots of your blog’s progress and don’t be scared to show these during an interview.

Remember: the emphasis is on not really on the topic. It’s on the opportunity to share your thoughts and showcase your knowledge about the changing digital landscape. Your worth is at your fingertips, so be brilliant and start blogging.

@AaronEstabrook

Before Qorvis, I was a public communication instructor at Ball State University. I trained students to speak clearly and confidently in professional or pubic situations, which I found highly rewarding, but often concerning.

Watching a first semester freshman struggle to find their voice in front of an unfamiliar audience was expected; however, to watch a soon-to-be graduating senior flounder and nervously stumble through their first professional presentation was worrisome.

Even more perplexing, these students were the new fresh faces of a growing field of future marketers, advertisers and PR professionals. I wondered, how could these communication-based disciplines neglect such a vital tool for gaining employment and also one necessary for translating key messages to relevant audiences?

This was not an isolated phenomenon. I have worked at other agencies, where I witnessed many client meetings, interviews, and training sessions go down in flames. I watched helplessly as colleagues and supervisors fumbled through media pitches and sales meetings, diminishing their credibility with every passing minute.

Marketing, advertising, public relations, nursing, law, or any other client-based profession is dependent on an ability to communicate with others face-to-face. There is no greater skill than the ability to speak clearly and confidently. What good are website traffic statistics if you are unable to confidently describe them to a client group?

Although I cannot say why educators and company trainers overlook such a critical tool, I can assign some homework for those who wish to improve:

Starting today, your assignment is to be more public.

•  Take additional public speaking courses or media training. These classes can forever transform the way you                   speak and present yourself.

•  If you are currently employed, ask your supervisor to lead a small training session or group activity.

•  Talk to more strangers. You can start by asking for directions or greeting others in an elevator. This technique               will help you become more concise and confident with your communication.

• Interact more with groups. For instance, instead of eating alone, have lunch in public or with your colleagues.              Rather than staying in the home to relax, spend some time in busier parts of you neighborhood.

While these suggestions might seem ineffective at first, overtime they go a long way in building self-confidence and improving your skill at speaking concisely.

It doesn’t matter if you are currently looking for a job or are already a central part of a company; your ability to communicate orally is vital. To gain employment you need a solid interview. To get a raise, one needs to clearly articulate their value. To display your company’s progress to a client, you must be concise, organized and confident under pressure. Just remember, it doesn’t matter if you are an expert at social media, if you are an amateur at social interaction.

@AaronEstabrook

Why then are the marketing plans so different?

The board of a mid-sized trade association recently invited me to help them think through ways to rebrand the organization as a first step to increasing its footprint. I immediately abandoned my prepared presentation when I saw their signage in the lobby.

It read, “Investing hundreds of millions to stimulate to the creation of new companies, employment opportunities, new funding sources, and business investments in this geographic area”. [Exact wording intentionally altered.]

In the intangible world of professional services and trade associations, marketing messages often divert to the comfort zone of the organization’s staff rather than towards the needs of the targeted audience. Meaning they market what they do, rather than why what they do matters.

Would a soft drink manufacturer place this language in an ad to sell its product?

“We mix precise amounts of carbonated water with sugars and syrups and place it in cans and to be distributed to a point of sale for easy consumer access.”

Trade associations primarily care about two things: growing the membership base and getting members involved. It is a simple equation; the rate of membership renewal is equal to or greater than the value that a member gets from the program, and value is determined by respective ratios, including membership size, membership quality, resources, and – most of all – membership engagement.

Here are two simple lessons that trade associations can learn from consumer marketers to increase their rate of membership growth and renewal by engaging the membership.

1. It is about them. Not you. Qorvis took a look at more than 100 trade association websites this week. More than half of these websites had “About Us” as the first link in the global navigation. The first two sub-navigation under “About Us”? You guessed it, “Board of Directors” and “Staff.” If you went to any website for a soap, or a razor, or a candy bar, you would be hard pressed to find the brand manager’s name listed anywhere on the site. You would find, however, messages that guide you to consider the product.

Leaders, and their expertise, do matter in selling services and can differentiate you from alternative associations. It is important information to have listed. I am not arguing that.

What is important to note here is the root cause of the messaging problem. The board members are listed first because of a default to speak about one thing that the trade association knows most – itself.

2. Foster engagement. Don’t wait for it. Marketing a trade association doesn’t have to be overly complicated to apply similar concepts utilized by successful consumer brands. As long as the concept is tightly managed, it can remain simple in concept and still yield high levels of member involvement.

For example, Qorvis just managed a photo contest for the American Equipment Manufacturers’ I Make America campaign. EAM members and prospective members could submit images – often humorous – of instances where American infrastructure had lapsed. The campaign solved two problems. It provided a fact-basis in photographs to support legislative arguments in favor of the organization’s political agenda, while simultaneously engaging their current and prospective membership pool.

On the other end of your message is a member with dues to renew. Lead with messages that teach the member something he or she did not already know, or towards campaigns with which he or she can get involved. Your association will further establish its thought leadership, or provide an tangible opportunity to increase the value the member receives.

I first heard “narrative” three years ago in reference to ways that Afghanistan can “change its narrative”.  While this seemed a novel idea at the time, it turned out that my company’s recommendations for helping change the narrative for that war torn country was piled among a stack of 70 others.  Clearly ideas spread quickly in Washington.

As we approach the 10 year anniversary of 9-11, it really is time for the contracting community and government agencies to begin developing new narratives and positioning themselves for the years ahead.  The past decade saw an explosion of growth in government contracting that, after some signs of slowing down, looks like it could be coming to a screeching halt.  Understandably government agencies and the contractors that serve them are scrambling to sustain programs, as is pointed out in today’s Washington Post.

Like others, my company has seen a marked increase recently in the number of firms approaching us for communications assistance to help ensure programs stay funded.  We have seen associations and coalitions form around certain sectors to advocate program relevancy.  And we have seen government agencies eager to communicate to their stakeholders (read: Congress) through glossy annual reports and other marketing collateral that highlight the benefits that their agency provides either to national security or jobs.

What seems to be missing, however, is the realization that agencies and organizations need to develop new narratives.  The world has changed and the contracting community needs to change with it.  No longer can companies issue the token press release claiming multi-million-dollar program awards written for only the most technically astute program managers.  Instead, companies need to communicate awards and programs in terms that taxpayers understand.  It’s not difficult; it’s just communicating programs with a slightly different audience in mind.  My colleague Stan Collender made this point at last spring’s conference of the Coalition for Government Procurement, and I thought it was a brilliant recommendation.  While Stan knew the debt limit was going to be a focus of Washington politics this summer, I don’t think even he foresaw the possibility of the “Super Committee”.

This call to a new narrative was reinforced last night while reading Nicolas Schmidle’s New Yorker article “Getting Bin Laden”.  In the article, Schmidle writes about the close collaboration between Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) and the CIA in the killing of Bin Laden.  The planning and execution of this mission brought the collaboration between these two agencies to its highest level.  As John Radsan, former assistant general counsel at the C.I.A., is quoted in the article, “the Abbottabad raid amounted to ‘a complete incorporation of JSOC into a C.I.A. operation.’”.  Add to this Mr. Panetta’s move from the Director of the CIA to the Secretary of Defense and General Petraeus’ move from commanding general in Afghanistan and Iraq to the Director of the CIA.  Now that’s a new narrative.