THE EMERGING SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF MESSAGES AIMED AT THE AMERICAN PUBLIC

& WHAT THAT WILL MEAN TO WASHINGTON (AND NEW YORK)

 The following are my remarks prepared (and slightly edited) for the conference on “The New Washington” held at The National Press Club in Washington, D.C., the morning of December 2, 2008.  Qorvis Communications was a sponsor of that conference and helped initiate it.  The conference, for which almost 600 people reserved seats, was hosted by Bisnow,  and other sponsors included Patton Boggs and Deloitte.

In the first quarter of this year, Chrysler and Ford cut U.S. advertising budgets by 42 percent and 31 percent, respectively.  In April and May, Proctor & Gamble, the largest advertiser in the world, cut its ad spend by twenty percent.  In the second quarter, Netflix, one of the largest advertisers on the Internet, cut its marketing expenses by 27 percent.  All of that was before the financial meltdown of October – before the consumer went comatose.

It is simply restating the obvious to say that the economy is bringing with it a dramatic decrease in messages that basically say “buy this.”

At the same time, the changing political environment is leading to an accelerating increase in messages that say: “support this.”  We have already begun to see these messages and it’s only spring training — the real season hasn’t even begun.  Support the importance of chemistry.  Support this way of  conducting union elections.  Support reforming the nation’s healthcare system this way and certainly not that way.   These are part of the tip of an iceberg.  We’re going to live in an environment of a permanent political campaign that does not end with an election but goes up and down in intensity as issues move onto the front stage, get resolved or deferred, and new ones come up to take their place.

The reason for the current and emerging growth in “support this” messages is obvious:  The new White House and executive branch, led by an enormously charismatic President with dramatic persuasive abilities to articulate the messages for his own agenda, is giving every indication that he will be unafraid to address very fundamental issues.  He will be supported by a new Congress that will take office feeling a mandate for change from a highly engaged and interactive constituency.

Together, the new White House and new Congress will propose game-changing rules for a broad range of industries including healthcare, energy, defense, the nation’s transportation infrastructure, financial services … the list goes on.  As a result, special interest groups of all sizes, ideologies and motivations will have mission critical needs to defend those existing policies – and/or promote those new policies – that serve their vested interests.

There are some important inherent differences between campaigns to get an audience to buy something versus campaigns to get an audience to support something.  The very metrics for success are different:  seeking votes in the Senate for proposed legislation is a vastly different process than seeking to get a consumer to buy an SUV.  For example, asking someone to make a phone call or send an email to a Senator is a major goal of campaigns for supporters, but inane in campaigns for consumers.

Supporter-driven campaigns are combinations of public affairs, grass roots, crisis communications, media relations, guerilla marketing, political strategy, special events, interactive and social media, and traditional advertising, all working in tandem with lobbying and legal efforts.  This is the type of expertise that has grown up in DC, and that has become a separate and distinct communications industry segment.

What does this mean to the future of Greater Washington?

• The communications industry is dividing in two.  The center of consumerism will remain in New York, LA, and certain other markets such as Detroit for the automobile industry; but the center of what I call “supporterism” will be here in Washington.

• This should benefit our region.  The consumer-oriented segment of the communications industry started getting hit even before the October financial crisis and has already begun to cut expenses and people.  But the supporter-oriented segment of the industry – that part of the industry that exists in Washington – has been growing.  And it is likely to continue to grow substantially as campaign promises transition to possible new realities … and when what is at-risk – or what can be gained – becomes perhaps all-too-clear to all parties.

Or, to paraphrase Willy Sutton, who robbed banks because that was where the money was, taking messages to Washington will grow because that is where the money is now — as well as the power to enact new game-changing rules.

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